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Harris vs. Trump polls

Harris has a 3.4% lead based on 187 polls.

Sep 17, 2024

Photograph of Harris

Harris

49.6%
Photograph of Trump

Trump

46.2%

Estimate

95% of polls fall in this range

Polling average unskewer

Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.

Dem. +3.4

Original Avg.

Rep. BiasNo BiasDem. Bias

Dem. +3.4

Adjusted Avg.

Reset

187 polls

Latest Poll: Mon, Sep 16, 5:22 AM EDT

Sep 13 – 14

1,283 LV

Data for Progress
50.0%

Harris

46.0%

Trump

+4 Harris

Sep 12 – 14

1,721 RV

TIPP Insights
47.0%

Harris

43.0%

Trump

+4 Harris

Sep 12 – 14

2,772 RV

Ipsos/ABC News
51.0%

Harris

47.0%

Trump

+4 Harris

+ More Polls

The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).

Donald Trump headshot

Donald Trump

Donald Trump is an American businessman, television personality, and politician who served as the 45th President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021. Before his presidency, Trump was known for his real estate empire and for hosting the reality TV show, "The Apprentice." His presidency was notable for its non-traditional, often controversial, approach and prioritization of America-first policies. Trump was impeached twice by the House of Representatives, first in 2019 and then in 2021, but was acquitted both times by the Senate.

Kamala Harris headshot

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party who is serving as the Vice President of the United States. Before her vice presidency, she served as Senator for the state of California. Prior to that, she was the Attorney General for California.

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