Generic ballot polls
Democrats have a 2.0% lead based on 529 polls.
Sep 17, 2024
Democrat
46.8%
Republican
44.8%
Estimate
95% of polls fall in this range
Polling average unskewer
Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.
Dem. +2.0
Original Avg.
Dem. +2.0
Adjusted Avg.
Reset
A bit of background... The generic ballot serves as a crucial predictor for the battle over control of the US House of Representatives, offering a snapshot of national party preference between Republicans and Democrats. Following a narrow Republican majority win in the 2022 midterms, this gauge provides insights into potential shifts in legislative power. It reflects the natural political environment of the nation as a whole, without considering specific candidates or politicians.
529 polls
Latest Poll: Mon, Sep 16, 5:22 AM EDT
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13 – 14 | 1,283 LV | Data for Progress | 48.0%Democrat 45.0%Republican | +3 Democrat |
| Sep 12 – 14 | 1,176 RV | YouGov/Yahoo News | 47.0%Democrat 43.0%Republican | +4 Democrat |
| Sep 9 – 11 | 1,464 RV | YouGov/The Economist | 45.0%Democrat 45.0%Republican | TIE |
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The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).
